Rjc's picks week 14

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On friday we have, what I believe to be, the eastern semi final preview. I was thinking before the lines came out that this would be a good spot to take the Bombers money line around +120 to +140. Turns out that Winnipeg has done enough in the last 2 weeks to be favorite (or Edmonton has stunk enough, or both). Edmonton cant seem to be able to tackle anybody right now, and I kinda like what I see out of Winnipeg's offence lately. If this game was being played in July or Aug. It would look like a 10 point win for Edm easy, but the tides are changing in the CFL and I think Winnipeg wins, but I will give the points because I hate to lay more than 20 cents juice. This strategy didnt help me last week, but I cant change who I am over 1 game.

Winnipeg -1.5, -106 (1 unit)

I am going to have to layoff the Stamps this week for 2 reasons. Everytime we have a back 2 back situation I usually look to bet the opposite direction from the first games results, so I should be looking at betting Toronto or over. I cannot bet on Toronto right now, and not just because they are playing the Stamps, it's because they are horrible. And as for the over, Toronto has scored 13ppg in their last 5 vs. teams not named tiger-cats. I cant touch either. The other thing keeping me away from the Stamps is that they havent won SU in the Skydome in forever. I dont know how long it's been, I cant remember of hand, and my stats only go back 5 years. Does anybody know how long it has actually been? Please dont tell me it was the 92 grey cup vs. Winnipeg. Somebody at work told me it was 10 years but I dont know for sure I think he was throwing out round numbers. If we have won in Toronto since I graduated high school, I cant remember it.

I am leaning MTL in the sunday game, but havent played it yet. Can anybody tell me what Montreal's record is when they play these 11am games? Their last 2 have been incredible I was wondering if it goes back further.

2008: 18 - 15; +2.98 units
 

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Okay I just found it: the Stamps havent won in Toronto since Sept 28, 2000.
 

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cfl.ca allowed me to go back to 2005. Last 9 games that Montreal has played at 1pm eastern time at home they are 7-2, total points 291 - 164.

My guess would be that there isnt too much to take away from these stats, these numbers are probably pretty consistent with their overall home record since 05. The last 2 home games have been at 1pm eastern and they are 2 - 0, total pts. 85 - 23. Maybe I am just trying too hard to find reasons to back the Als. I still like them though.
 

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I wasn't going to bet the stamps today, but I had a good day yesterday so I am going to give it a try. We all know Calgary never wins in Toronto but the more I think about it (or try to talk myself into it) the more I realize that the 08 Stamps have shed alot of their previous identity, thanks entirely, I believe, to coach Hufanagl.
The Stamps used to be awful on the road. This year they are 4-2 including a couple of their strongest games of the year in SSK and MTL.
The Stamps used to be unbeatable at home. This year they are 4-2 including their 2 worst proformances of the year vs. SSK and EDM.
The Stamps used to have the loudest, brashest most undisciplined offence in the league, earning them the nickname "Raiders of the North" which I hated. This year penalties are down and I havent seen any ridiculous celebrations, or pregame guarentees, infact I havent heard one word out of Jeremaine Copeland this year, which is nice.
The Stamps used to have the most selfish secondary in the league, constantly trying to tackle the football and be the hero instead of playing good sound football. Ok this one isnt quite there yet but it has improved during the season.
My point is; if the Stamps can change their old identity in one season, why should I pay so much attention to a stat that dates back 8 years.
I haven`t played a teaser yet this year, and I love the chalk tonight.

2 team tease:
Calgary -3 & BC -6.5; -110 (1unit)
 

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